TOPIC: Kentucky prices dry 10/13/14

geezman46 wrote:

how do they know its a bargain?

That's a good question.

With the exception of the past couple years, the point of resistance seems to have been around $600 or so. So, if we arbitrarily pick that number as a fairly consistent market baseline, we can see the out of line prices that we have enjoyed the past couple years need to be corrected. Most of the early ginseng this year was bought higher than $600/lb, and it should not have been. The pricing I'm hearing about in a few small sales which are happening and which I've been part of are all right around a number which would have only justified a $600/lb market at most.

The second issue is the carry over root from last year which was bought at high prices. If you have a barrel of average medium quality ginseng you bought for say $800/lb sitting in your warehouse, and you are getting resistance to pricing over $600, why would you buy any more root of that same quality unless you can buy it for $400? If you buy a second barrel for $400, you now have a $600 average in the two barrels and can sell them both at the $600 price point. I personally think that is a large part of what is going on...buyers who have high priced inventory are averaging down so they can move stock.

I also think much of this is economic and folks all over have their money tied up.

I've had a lot of calls this week from Ky. diggers and they are telling me that a lot of dealers have quit buying or dropped prices into the $400's. Ask me what I was paying and I say $520 to $540 per dry lb. for good not picked through seng. This price good for this week only.
Then they ask if it will go up. I really don't see how it can since were at pretty normal or above average prices. Ginseng is not gold nor will it keep forever.
The market could shut completely down this year.

Completely shut down? Green market is stronger than ever and they haven't really started getting in to buying dry good yet. So how could it completely shut down

This goes back to what I said in the first place. You cannot make someone buy something they don't want, or buy something at a price they don't want. If all the dealers in the US buy too high, they won't want to sell at a loss and their buyers won't buy at a price too high...so everything grinds to a halt.

xl seng wrote:

Completely shut down? Green market is stronger than ever and they haven't really started getting in to buying dry good yet. So how could it completely shut down

XL SENG.

your thinking is correct, just use your better judgement and dont get pressured into giving it away. The market will change, it always does.

one big company in pennsylvania could buy every wild root in the entire country if they wanted to and it wouldnt even dent them if they lost money they could use it as a tax rightoff and still make money . less face it the market seems big to us poor folk but in conparison to what walmart does in buissness with china its a drop of water in a lake what interest the U.S. pays on what we owe china in one day would easily buy out all the ginseng as long as its selling there they will buy here sooner or later

What I'm saying is, dealers can't pay more than what they can sell it for.
So if the Asian buyers will not pay above normal prices,Who do you sell it to?
I sure don't know.

How can a dealer have root left over from last year and it still be good, if it looses its freshness when we diggers hold it over for a year?

I read somewhere on this forum where the market could close completly down on the ginseng buying and it is against the law to hold it from one year to the next,well what are we supposed to do? Do we give it away or,do we give it to the goverment or do we eat it? or we just plain and simply stick it up our butts lol?

I think I read somewhere,that if you keep it till next year,it has to be certified.not positive on that,though.