TOPIC: Pay a fair price now or pay a huge price later?

Scare enough people and you might buy some cheap ginseng but scare tomany people out of the woods and production will plumit .some jobs are starting to come back once people go back to work it will b e hard to get them back in the woods . were one drought year away from a all time low harvest so buy it while you can and store it up or pay huge prices in the next few years or quit wild ginseng one because there will be no other choice. The damage of the last ten years will show up big time in the next few years its already happening here in ky where 25 percent of all wild ginseng is harvested production will drop by 1000,s of pounds next year and no number of diggers will change that because the ginsengs just nolonger there to dig. same things starting to happen in west virgina and north carolina just might take a little longer also tenn. and virgina production might be up in some of the other states in the program but the truth is those five states produce much more then all the others combined.

In reality It is harder to find quality seng. If the market would realize the reality of the situation the value would increase. Fortunately for me I can sit on mine for awhile. Piss on the market I would use mine for kindling before I would take less than $950 a pound.I started into this season wanting to make $3000 so I could plant a small vineyard. If I cant make my goal piss on it. Dang deer would eat my vines anyway.

In reality It is harder to find quality seng. If the market would realize the reality of the situation the value would increase. Fortunately for me I can sit on mine for awhile. Piss on the market I would use mine for kindling before I would take less than $950 a pound.I started into this season wanting to make $3000 so I could plant a small vineyard. If I cant make my goal piss on it. Dang deer would eat my vines anyway.

leebros, this post is not directed at you or wise1,

The most ridiculous statement i ever read today was on the nc dealers quit buying seng today post reason;;;; NO MARKET!

Are you flippin kidding me? NO MARKET? REALLY?.....REALLY?,
you guys should start posting dealer names when they make absoulutly stupid, stupid stupid claims like that, I have a good mind to hop a plane fly to nc, find those dealers and laugh in their hillbilly faces. When in recorded history has there ever been no market for wild ginseng? So what those guys have stated is that ginseng has no value whatsoever, i call bullsh*t, there is no way i will ever accept that reason.
Here is the real reason: they have all the seng they can afford to buy, complements of poachers and idiots selling green seng to them at a whopping 200 a pound. that equates to 600-800 a pound dry, depending on which crook you believe on the green to dry ratio. You guys that are panicing are suffering from the \"heard mentality\" not to be confused with the \"herd mentality\".
Let one dealers make a stupid comment and it takes off like wild fire, i heard this or i heard that...looks like they have the diggers on a sheet of artic ice clubbing them like seals,
look prices will hit 1200-1500 lb this year, you or i may not recieve it but when the market finally wraps up this year those dealer are going to be laughing all the way to the bank, and whats worse is they are going to sell you guys seed at the tune of 150* lb. Ive been telling you for weeks to hold your seng, but if you get skinned buy your dealer its your own fault.

think about this, if they had money they would at least be offering something for the seng right? hell makes me want to try to get my license before season ends. hahahah were not buying...stupid ginger-kids.

lets go back to last month. does this ring a bell?

http://www.wildgrown.com/index.php/Ginseng-Forum/General-Ginseng-Questions-Answers/30149-2014-Ginseng-Prices.html#30149

i said this would happen, but it came even earlier than i expected.

I like the one they say about the market being flooded. Harvest yields in Indiana have been the following amounts by year

2001 7048.7 lbs
2002 3192 351 average # roots per pound
2003 6915 323 average # roots per pound
2004 4819 426 average # roots per pound
2005 4923 373 average # roots per pound
2006 5096 488 average # roots per pound
2007 3888 430 average # roots per pound
2008 4623 318 average # roots per pound
2009 ????
2010 3940
2011 3477
2012 1946 lbs.

No figures available yet that I know of for 2013, and for some reason I can't find 2009's even though I'm rather sure I had it broken down by county even.
I've included the average # of roots required to make 1lbs that were available for some years.
Based on the above #'s its now taking nearly 3 years of harvest in Indiana to meet the same number of pounds that were brought in for 2001
From my understanding most every state where ginseng is legal to harvest has seen much in the same drop in yields. So if the markets Flooded then the Chinese need 50% less wild ginseng every year.
I just don't see that being the case. The problem appears currently is the buyers here have begun to deplete or depleted available cash and they've been waiting on the Chinese to show a interest and begin buying then since the Chinese have delayed entering the market and they've been buying heavily and they depleted a lot of their own funds buying with no real price direction from the Chinese in the form of purchases they'll be on the hook for what they've invested so they have quit buying or reduced prices paid and appear to only be able to move the root amongst themselves right now.
Because our dealers will not cooperate amongst themselves as its a each to their own mentality it appears to me the Chinese simply need to continue to let the dealers buy up the available ginseng without showing a interest then when the dealers have used up the funds they have available the prices start to drop as the dealers get scared begin lowering the price they pay or quit buying all together. From what little I know of the Chinese buyers it seems they've NO problem putting there heads together and cooperating to accomplish this.
To me the #'s SCARE me on how fast the yields dropping and the rise in # of roots required to make a pound. I know were known for mainly smaller ball root here but I average about 280-300per lbs.

Purely just an observation.

But, if

_base_d on the above #'s its now taking nearly 3 years of harvest in Indiana to meet the same number of pounds that were brought in for 2001

Doesn't it make sense that (with appropriate adjustments) the price would be three times higher than in 2001? What was the average price in Indiana in 2001 or so?

Just curious...not trying to stir anything up.

Purely just an observation.

But, if

_base_d on the above #'s its now taking nearly 3 years of harvest in Indiana to meet the same number of pounds that were brought in for 2001

Doesn't it make sense that (with appropriate adjustments) the price would be three times higher than in 2001? What was the average price in Indiana in 2001 or so?

Just curious...not trying to stir anything up.

BCastle wrote:

Purely just an observation.

But, if

_base_d on the above #'s its now taking nearly 3 years of harvest in Indiana to meet the same number of pounds that were brought in for 2001

Doesn't it make sense that (with appropriate adjustments) the price would be three times higher than in 2001? What was the average price in Indiana in 2001 or so?

Just curious...not trying to stir anything up.

Normally it seems to me that as something becomes more rare that is in demand then that item increases in value more than just the lost percentage of the original available item. Also by just increasing it by a factor of 3 you fail to take into account inflation, devaluation of the US dollar and increased valuation of the Yuan. So in example say we've had what 13% inflation ( probably double to triple that ) in 13 years and the Yuan as appreciated from being like 40yuan to the dollar to I believe somewhere around 6 yuan to the dollar now so they can now buy 6 times the dollars for their money. So many factors to consider and I'm no economics major.

1995 to 2000 the price of Wild Ginseng was $450-$650 per pound.

2001the price of Wild Ginseng was $280-$430 per pound.

2002 to 2005 the price of Wild Ginseng was $500-$650 per pound.

2006 the price of Wild Ginseng was $500-$750 per pound.

2007 the price of Wild Ginseng was $900-$1100 per pound.

2008 the price of Wild Ginseng was $450-$600 per pound.

2009 to 2011 the price of Wild Ginseng was $500-$700 per pound.

2012 the price of Wild Ginseng was $700-$850 per pound.

2013 the price of Wild Ginseng was $850-$1200 per pound.

2014 September price of Wild Ginseng was $700 to $1050 per pound.