Results will vary dramatically depending on so many factors that have been mentioned on this forum.
In my opinion and generalizing by melding a bunch of info I have witnessed, experienced and read over the years, I would estimated the following.
You can expect anywhere from 0% to !0% survival rate on \"wild simulated\" after 10 years.
I would say I am somewhere in that range on those 10 lbs of seed I had planted. More like 1% to 2 % if I had to put a number on it. That's about 650 to 1300 big ole 3 and 4 prongs doing very well. It looks like I have a bunch of plants as they are everywhere at my best spot. However, considering I planted about 65,000 + seeds you would expect to see a lot more ginseng than I have.
By the way this is a spot where the soil is so dark and loamy it looks like potting soil on a slope facing east. Calcium is over 6,000 PPA. So if this great spot only produced that many plants just think what an average spot or below average spot would do.
So if you can get 10% survival rate after 10 years then you would be doing great in my opinion.