I feel that it may be a good possibility! The effect that the drought has had on the Ginseng harvest has not really hit the market yet. If it is going to happen or a significant rise in prices happens, we should start seeing it by mid-November give or take a week! There is already some talk and rumors around here from Dealers and others that the prices might hit a $1,000 by the end of the year.
I can see where prices might go high, but then again, I've already been told by one source that they will just sit out if that happens and not buy this year at all. Its anyone's guess at this point.
Are you talking about a somewhat localized in state Ginseng Buyer or a Dealer/Exporter that deals in large quantities of Ginseng? If a Ginseng Buyer/Dealer/Exporter is making money, then why would they sit it out if the price hits a $1,000 or more??!! Surely as the price goes up, the profit margin would go up accordingly! If a Buyer is making say 5% to 10% now, then they should make 5% to 10% even if the price hits the roof. However in most markets, when the price point goes up so does the profit margin, allowing Buyers/Dealers/Exporters to make more profit. This sounds more like a case where the Buyer is either too tight in the wallet to pay a higher price no matter what or they are afraid that once they have invested at the higher price, then the price will significantly bomb! The decision that the Buyer/Dealer/Exporter makes will have some effect on the market prices. However, if they bow out and the supply, even short term does not meet the demand (some diggers were unable to sell their' Ginseng because their local Buyer source is not buying), then the price could go even higher!
Brad's right, The Asians will shut it off like a faucet if they think the price is getting too high!
Now see there, that is the problem! Do you all know or have they ever told you what they get for the Ginseng that they purchased from you or any other Dealers? Well it ain't chump change and their' profit margin compared to local Buyers/Dealers is like Buffet's compared to Trump's! Don't you think that it is time that local Buyers/Dealers and the diggers deserve to get a little more the action due to the disparity between what we the diggers get and what you the Buyers/Dealers make compared to what they make? I certainly do! Heck, they produce bottles of 25 or 50 count 500mg or 1,000mg capsules using their' poor strength and poor quality Ginseng and because they add a half millgram to 1mg or less of our' Panax quinquefolius (Wild North American Ginseng), then they can sell the crap back to us as pure Panax quinquefolius (Wild North American Ginseng) when it is not. When someone from China or Korea moans and complains that they can't make enough profit off of the Ginseng that they buy from the U.S. and Canada, then I get out my' miniature Violin and play \"My heart bleeds for you\"! Wake up America, Pitts off!!!!!!!!!!
Huntsman53...It did not stop the asians from buying in 2007, it wont stop them this year either if the price is high. If the demand is there then they will buy. Most dealers do not want you to think prices will soar they are afraid you will hold till prices peak, they stand to make the most money when they buy early in the season and the price climbs. I am not saying this is unfair or evil, it is just business. This is not the case for all dealers just most.
Guys, lets not forget that this is not a dealers vs diggers issue. It never has been. Dealers make more money when prices are high. I'm paying as much as anyone in the state. The question was asked, and I answered. I won't do it again. I'm tired of this BS every time someone tells the truth on this forum.
Think what you all want to think....and speculate on your own about the markets.